What keeps most leaders up at night is the possibility of doom and gloom from external forces. Disruptive change has never been so swift and far-reaching in today’s connected world.
While your instincts are sharp, and your experience and knowledge has enabled you to remove blind spots, no one has a clear vision of the future.
A multitude of factors can still ruin your business.
Welcome to the VUCA world (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous) where the biggest threats that could take you out are the ones you won’t see coming.
If you don’t know what VUCA threats are, here are some examples:
- Macro-economic events that can impact national and global economies, for example — natural disasters, political unrest, foreign trade policies, market recessions, data breach, and fuel prices.
- Micro-economic events that affect individuals, markets, and communities where you operate, for example — emerging technologies, demand, supply, product pricing, and government policy changes.
But it’s not all bad. Some disruptions may turn out for the best. Nevertheless, a rational framework can help you process all your fears, hopes and expectations and make the best decisions.
Introducing the 4 Ds of VUCA
Use this mind tool to help you plan to navigate and mitigate the negative impact of VUCA.
Discern. Challenge your assumptions about the future by imagining a range of business outcomes from best to worst.
Determine. Identify all the issues and problems that could arise with each scenario.
Decide. Choose the way forward or the strategic response with each scenario using this formula — “If (X) then (Y)”
Do. Communicate the strategy to the team for implementation.
This is not about fear mongering. This is about smart navigating – looking out for all kinds of scenarios that could harm your business. More importantly, it is about being prepared with better ideas to move your way around VUCA and head towards success.